Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 58235.586776 61666.088199 65102.326556 68799.840361 72663.267579 76578.176776 80842.401499
2024-10-27 52368.374092 57577.781723 62949.234630 68892.925760 75276.759062 81918.535917 89342.245973
2024-11-03 48967.121916 55440.151896 62265.950651 69982.151918 78444.046576 87422.923337 97652.108546
2024-11-10 46213.607517 53629.526957 61597.772445 70766.430713 80994.312658 92022.173790 104780.230779
2024-11-17 43729.895741 51868.851582 60759.947217 71150.186140 82913.699263 95773.208151 110846.909008
2024-11-24 41391.425040 50088.828332 59734.600697 71166.030959 84281.846512 98797.100998 116011.058132
2024-12-01 39543.619264 48740.295716 59081.509794 71494.122672 85907.649815 102035.808783 121362.104631
2024-12-08 37745.924741 47341.630798 58272.994997 71551.551771 87144.099203 104770.659055 126095.658018
2024-12-15 36680.974719 46738.032979 58330.610849 72564.198406 89446.112753 108704.283117 132201.421135
2024-12-22 35080.546784 45414.236035 57467.054803 72424.812118 90342.377188 110965.947525 136339.358408
2024-12-29 34295.078258 45032.585851 57688.877238 73545.248986 92706.196707 114935.301111 142484.021086
2025-01-05 33360.310127 44420.718104 57592.660882 74248.339560 94546.799107 118275.433712 147889.542471
2025-01-12 32134.237495 43415.835260 56996.034096 74333.109919 95647.715790 120759.585330 152325.661278
2025-01-19 30839.965450 42278.445160 56195.474583 74132.083342 96375.160718 122782.966412 156212.209439
2025-01-26 30254.607420 42013.862756 56456.740683 75226.934481 98680.270942 126711.832332 162413.725136
2025-02-02 29580.782431 41605.566623 56512.743597 76045.821510 100633.631976 130213.579609 168111.808752
2025-02-09 28760.011773 40974.081437 56258.155622 76449.898046 102054.785627 133058.493146 173014.787812
2025-02-16 27814.176938 40144.305431 55719.689785 76466.209171 102969.072760 135267.825056 177136.546720
2025-02-23 27063.972095 39546.725736 55456.459155 76813.580724 104286.164945 137969.879202 181872.608697
2025-03-02 26232.250798 38811.360758 54988.605568 76874.380491 105222.259809 140188.873411 186010.720503
2025-03-09 25861.091508 38684.148652 55305.892921 77946.692387 107449.957459 144032.684750 192197.747034
2025-03-16 25015.895074 37881.918087 54707.047288 77799.102408 108092.223214 145872.177859 195871.303330
2025-03-23 24737.317368 37849.774082 55124.832102 78985.386407 110461.950249 149907.392808 202335.395377